From Jim Eskin, Public Affairs Stratagist ....................... ................February 2008

What fun! The experts are scrambling to explain what's happening in the presidential election, why their predictions are off, and are being more cautious about future predictions. It's looking more and more like this might become an old-fashioned delegate hunt and that both the Democratic and Republican nomination battles could extend into the later primaries and maybe beyond.

Here's good news: A lot more people are voting, attending political events, and following the campaigns. Groups, especially young people who hadn't participated before, have come into the process.
All this is good for our nation. Democracy has been re-energized.
Buckle your seatbelts for Tsunami Tuesday. The Super Bowl will be easier to call (Patriots 31, Giants 20)!

HISTORY LESSON
It once seemed clear why New Hampshire mattered: Starting with Eisenhower, no one who lost the first-in-the-nation primary went on to get elected president. Granite Staters spent four decades invoking this factoid, proof positive of their power, prescience and uncanny ability to back the right horse.

Then it crumbled, as coincidences do-yet another alleged bellwether done in by the law of averages. The Democrats went first: Bill Clinton lost New Hampshire but won the presidency in 1992. And then George W. Bush did it in 2000. (Plenty, indeed, don't even get nominated: New Hampshire winners have gone on to the eventual nomination in seven of 10 contested Republican races since 1952, and in just six of 12 on the Democratic side.)

At least there's Iowa-only its track record is worse. Just once since Iowa fever took hold in 1972 has the winner of a contested caucus been elected president-Bush in 2000, when he went mano-a-mano with Steve Forbes.

MAKING THE NEWS
Which candidates and which parties are winning the derby for press exposure?

In the first five months of the campaign, the media found Democrats more newsworthy than Republicans, concludes Journalism.org. From January through May 2007, nearly half of 2008 election stories (49%) focused on Democratic candidates, while less than a third (31%) focused on Republicans.

Five candidates-two Democrats and three Republicans-were the focus of more than half of the coverage. These included New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama among the Democrats and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Sen. John McCain, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in the Republican field.

THE NASTY FACTOR
Both Democrats and Republicans say they're angry with the political system, meaning candidates on both sides will be making their pitches to a less-than-welcoming electorate.

The Zogby poll shows Democrats more incensed than Republicans. Nearly four in five (78%) of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa and 81% of likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire said they were angry with the political system.

These same Democrats are mostly animated by the President, as 66% of Iowa Democrats and 75% of New Hampshire Democrats said they're "very angry" with George W. Bush. Just 3% of New Hampshire Democrats said they were "not at all angry" with the President.

WOULD YOU VOTE FOR A ...?
The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 74% of voters say they're willing to cast their presidential votes for a woman.

However, just 54% say their family, friends and co-workers are willing to do the same. Nineteen percent say their peers would not be willing to vote for a woman while 27% are not sure.

Seventy-seven percent say they are willing to vote for an African-American.

Once again, there is a gap between the personal response and perceptions of others. Just 56% say that their peers would be willing to vote for an African-American candidate. Fifteen percent say their peers would be unwilling to do so while 29% aren't sure.

PARTY PREFERENCE
The percentage of Americans who identified themselves as Republicans to Gallup in 2007 was the lowest of any of the 20 calendar years since 1988. An average of 27.7% of Americans identified themselves as Republicans. The previous low in Republican identification was 28.1% in 1999.

Meanwhile, 32.5% of Americans identified themselves as Democrats and 38.6% as political Independents. The latter percentage is on the high end of what Gallup has measured in the last two decades, surpassed by only the 39.1% Independent identification average from 1995. The high point for Democratic identification came in 1988, when 35.6% said they were Democrats.

IN DEMOCRATS WE TRUST
Voters continue to trust Democrats more than Republicans. Rasmussen Reports says Democrats get the nod on nine of 10 issues and lead by double digits on six: the Economy, Immigration, Government Ethics and Corruption, Health Care, Social Security, and Education.

On no issue are Republicans more widely trusted than Democrats. The best the GOP can currently achieve is parity: 43% to 43% on National Security and the War on Terror.
When the war in Iraq is isolated as a separate foreign-policy issue, Democrats enjoy an eight-point advantage of 47% to 39%.

BETWEEN THE SHEETS IS A GREAT UNITER
The U.S. may be divided on social and cultural issues, but according to Playboy's "Politics of Sex" survey by Frank Luntz, voters in both blue states and red states are surprisingly united when it comes to sexual matters, and there is less separation in the bedroom than originally thought. Highlights:

• 25% of all Republicans and 35% of all Democrats have had more than 10 sexual partners in their lifetime-a higher percentage than vote in congressional and local elections.

• 55% of Republicans have sex at least once a week, compared with just 43% of Democrats.

• 58% of respondents think Bill Clinton was the sexiest President of the past 40 years; Ronald Reagan is second, at 22%. Thirty-eight percent say Richard Nixon was the least sexy.

Wait a minute, what about JFK?

YOU VOTE WHAT YOU EAT
You can tell a person's politics by the cut of pasta, at least according to a red vs. blue state analysis by American Italian Pasta Company. Democrats lean towards elbow macaroni, while Republicans tend to prefer long spaghetti.

The study did uncover some bi-partisan ground: healthier pastas-including whole grain and whole wheat varieties-are gaining in popularity across party lines.

Sen. Ted Kennedy may be disappointed to hear that his state's pasta preferences crossed party lines. Blue state Massachusetts actually prefers spaghetti. A Mitt Romney influence, perhaps.

DON'T FORGET STATE RACES
While much of the media are focused on the presidential contest, races with equal or even greater power to impact everyday lives will be decided at the state level, with 11 governors' contests headlining the year. Republicans hope to chip away at Democrats' 28-to-22 advantage in gubernatorial control by picking up two open seats being vacated by Democrats due to term limits.

Five Republican and four Democratic governors are seeking re-election, and the power of incumbency gives them the edge. As the 2008 campaign season began, some didn't even have challengers yet.

POWER OF VIDEOS
With more and more people viewing videos online, the political world is paying attention to see how valuable these may be for candidates. It may be too early to tell. The Harris Poll indicates that 81% of adults who are online have watched videos there, but only a third of these have ever watched a political video. Of course, this does translate into many millions of people, 62 million in fact.

Looking at the type of political videos watched, just over one-quarter of those who have watched a video online have watched a news story about a campaign or candidate, while 14% have watched a candidate interview and the same number have watched a political speech. Just one in 10 watched a political advertisement and 10% a campaign video.

FRANCHISE RANKINGS QUIZ
Entrepreneur's Franchise 500 is considered the best and most comprehensive rating of franchises. All companies, regardless of size, are judged by the same criteria-objective, quantifiable measures of a franchise operation. The most important factors include financial strength and stability, growth rate and size of the system. Match the following leading franchises with their rankings. Answers presented below. See you next month.

Answers: 1=e, 2=d, 3=c, 4=a, 5=b.

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