From Jim Eskin, Public Affairs Stratagist
....................... ....................... March 2008

Are there more election season surprises in store? Maybe so.

John McCain is the presumptive Republican nominee, but who knows how the Democratic contest will turn out? It may end up in the hands of the 796 super delegates. Or a decision hinging on the 366 delegates the Democratic National Committee stripped from Michigan and Florida for moving their primary dates.

This has been a year of surprises and of underdogs. I sure got the Super Bowl wrong. And talking about upsets, how about Uno, the first beagle ever to win Best in Show in the 132 year history of the Westminster Kennel Dog Show? He has to be Underdog Numero Uno!

Hold on-there's more. For the first time in American history, the general election will pit two Senators running against each other. How this will play out is anyone's guess. But keep this in mind: The Clintons have always done their best when their backs are against the wall.

POLITICAL BONDING
An APCO Worldwide study finds Hillary Clinton and John McCain outperformed the other candidates of their respective parties in building emotional connections.

Emotional Factors, a brand relationship model, measures the emotional relationship that voters have with the candidates. The nine emotional factors are Approachability, Curiosity, Empowerment, Familiarity, Identification, Prides, Relevance, Trust and Warmth.

Among both Democratic and Republican likely voters, Relevance is the most important emotional driver which gives the sense that the candidate 'fits who I am' and 'speaks to me.' As a deciding factor in how to vote, Republican voters are slightly more driven by Pride in their candidates than Democratic voters.

TALKING POLITICS AT WORK
It used to be taboo to discuss politics around the water cooler. But the times they are changing. Adecco USA reports that 50% of American workers do talk politics in the office, while 47% listen and keep their political views to themselves (3% "don't know").

Among the younger set, however, the percentage increases to 61%-a dramatic jump from the 45% of Millennials who reported discussing politics at work during 2004. Even though half of respondents do talk politics at work, a majority of them (62%) report that they don't know who their co-workers are voting for.

END OF APATHY

Gallup says that Americans are unusually focused on the election, more so than for any recent contest at this time in the election cycle. Democrats and Republicans appear equally interested in the election, although Democrats are more enthusiastic about their particular set of candidates.

The overall high level of voter engagement most probably reflects several factors, including the early start of the primaries and caucuses, but interest at this point is higher than interest at any point throughout the winter and spring of the 2000 and 2004 elections.

Other factors that may be producing high interest include the fact that this is a truly open election with no incumbent president or vice president running, and perhaps the presence of a unique set of candidates who have captured the imagination of the American public.

CAN'T GET ENOUGH
The presidential campaign continues to dominate national news coverage with the public highly engaged. The Pew Research Center finds nearly 40% of the national newshole in early 2008 has been devoted to the campaign, and 36% of the public listed the campaign as the single news story they were following more closely than any other.

Democratic frontrunners Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have been the most prominent figures. When asked to name the person they had heard the most about in the news lately, 24% of the public named Obama and 23% named Clinton. In the week when he proposed a major economic stimulus plan, just 5% of Americans named President Bush as the person they had heard the most about. About twice as many (11%) named Hollywood actor Heath Ledger, when he died.

NEWS GENDER GAP

A look at the public's news interests from the Pew Research Center over the past year shows continuing differences between women and men in the types of news stories that they follow very closely. Women consistently express more interest than men in stories about weather, health and safety, natural disasters and tabloid news. Men are more interested than women in stories about international affairs, Washington news and sports.

At the same time, men and women often express comparable levels of interest in the top news stories of the day. For example, the presidential campaign has attracted only modestly greater interest among men than among women.

REAGAN SNIFF TEST
In a Rasmussen Reports survey just 19% of America's voters believe the nation is better off today than it was four years ago compared to 74% who disagree.

Just 4% of Democrats believe the nation is better off while 91% disagree. Sixteen percent of unaffiliated voters say the nation is better off.

Among Republicans, 39% say the nation is better off while 51% disagree.

Sixteen percent say the country is heading in the right direction while 78% disagree and say the U.S. is on the wrong track.

Women are more pessimistic than men. Younger voters are less pessimistic than those who used to be young.

PRIMER ON POLLS

Everyone complains about them when they're off, but they're usually right on target. Polling as we know it began in 1936, when a young statistician named George Gallup conducted the first poll using statistical modeling. Sampling public opinion, Gallup said, is like sampling soup: One spoonful can reflect the taste of the whole pot, if the soup is well stirred. It's all about finding a sample that reflects the larger population.

For national polls, most pollsters use a sample of 1,500 as a rule of thumb. A sample that size will accurately reflect the whole within 3 percentage points, a variance that statisticians call the "margin of error."

PUSHY POLLS
Both the general public and targeted candidates are increasingly annoyed by push polls or political telemarketing, which often include negative-even inflammatory -information about a candidate. The media describe these telephone calls as push polls because they seek to "push" a certain candidate or position.

These are not legitimate polls being conducted for research purposes. Rather, they are persuasion calls-quick sales efforts, not the collection of unbiased responses of legitimate polls or surveys.

UNLUCKY E-MAIL
Mitt Romney says he and New England Patriot quarterback Tom Brady exchanged e-mails a day before the Super Bowl, but they didn't talk politics. They used Blackberrys for the exchange. Both of them didn't enjoy good Februarys.

THE PLAY'S THE THING
Not enough theatrics for you in the 2008 campaign, then next time you're on Broadway, see November, a new play by Pulitzer Prize-winner David Mamet.

Set just days before a presidential election, it proves, once and for all, there's no lower place than the highest office in the land, as the incumbent Commander-In-Chief must try to get a grip on such issues as lesbian marriage, Indian casinos, preposterous pardons and questionable campaign contributions, without losing his grip on the Oval Office.

It stars Tony Award winner Nathan Lane as President Charles Smith.

GIVE ME FOOTBALL
Each of the major sports has suffered image problems, but their popularity all remains relatively unchanged since last year. In a Harris Interactive survey, 3 in 10 Americans who follow one or more sports say that professional football is their favorite sport, almost unchanged from last year when 29% said it was their favorite.

Coming in at second is baseball, as 15% say that is their favorite sport, again almost unchanged from last year when it was 14%. Not far behind baseball is college football (12%) and auto racing (10%). All other sports are in single digits.

SMART TV QUIZ
MENSA International Chairman Jim Werdell recently disclosed his list of the 10 Smartest TV Shows of All Time, a task he described as difficult. Match the shows below with the order Werdell revealed these programs. Answers presented below. See you next month.

1. All in the Familya. No. 1
2. Cosmosb. No. 2
3. Jeopardyc. No. 5
4. M*A*S*H d. No. 7
5. West Winge. No. 10

 

Answers: 1=d, 2=b, 3=e, 4=a, 5=c.

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