Are
there more election season surprises in store? Maybe so.
John McCain is
the presumptive Republican nominee, but who knows how the Democratic contest will
turn out? It may end up in the hands of the 796 super delegates. Or a decision
hinging on the 366 delegates the Democratic National Committee stripped from Michigan
and Florida for moving their primary dates.
This has been a year of surprises
and of underdogs. I sure got the Super Bowl wrong. And talking about upsets, how
about Uno, the first beagle ever to win Best in Show in the 132 year history of
the Westminster Kennel Dog Show? He has to be Underdog Numero Uno!
Hold
on-there's more. For the first time in American history, the general election
will pit two Senators running against each other. How this will play out is anyone's
guess. But keep this in mind: The Clintons have always done their best when their
backs are against the wall.
POLITICAL
BONDING
An APCO Worldwide study finds Hillary Clinton and John McCain outperformed
the other candidates of their respective parties in building emotional connections.
Emotional
Factors, a brand relationship model, measures the emotional relationship that
voters have with the candidates. The nine emotional factors are Approachability,
Curiosity, Empowerment, Familiarity, Identification, Prides, Relevance, Trust
and Warmth.
Among both Democratic and Republican likely voters, Relevance
is the most important emotional driver which gives the sense that the candidate
'fits who I am' and 'speaks to me.' As a deciding factor in how to vote, Republican
voters are slightly more driven by Pride in their candidates than Democratic voters.

TALKING
POLITICS AT WORK
It used to be taboo to discuss politics around the water
cooler. But the times they are changing. Adecco USA reports that 50% of American
workers do talk politics in the office, while 47% listen and keep their political
views to themselves (3% "don't know").
Among the younger
set, however, the percentage increases to 61%-a dramatic jump from the 45% of
Millennials who reported discussing politics at work during 2004. Even though
half of respondents do talk politics at work, a majority of them (62%) report
that they don't know who their co-workers are voting for.
END
OF APATHY
Gallup says that Americans are unusually focused on the election,
more so than for any recent contest at this time in the election cycle. Democrats
and Republicans appear equally interested in the election, although Democrats
are more enthusiastic about their particular set of candidates.
The
overall high level of voter engagement most probably reflects several factors,
including the early start of the primaries and caucuses, but interest at this
point is higher than interest at any point throughout the winter and spring of
the 2000 and 2004 elections.
Other factors that may be producing high
interest include the fact that this is a truly open election with no incumbent
president or vice president running, and perhaps the presence of a unique set
of candidates who have captured the imagination of the American public.
CAN'T
GET ENOUGH
The presidential campaign continues to dominate national news
coverage with the public highly engaged. The Pew Research Center finds nearly
40% of the national newshole in early 2008 has been devoted to the campaign, and
36% of the public listed the campaign as the single news story they were following
more closely than any other.
Democratic frontrunners Barack Obama and
Hillary Clinton have been the most prominent figures. When asked to name the person
they had heard the most about in the news lately, 24% of the public named Obama
and 23% named Clinton. In the week when he proposed a major economic stimulus
plan, just 5% of Americans named President Bush as the person they had heard the
most about. About twice as many (11%) named Hollywood actor Heath Ledger, when
he died. 
NEWS
GENDER GAP
A look at the public's news interests from the Pew Research
Center over the past year shows continuing differences between women and men in
the types of news stories that they follow very closely. Women consistently
express more interest than men in stories about weather, health and safety, natural
disasters and tabloid news. Men are more interested than women in stories about
international affairs, Washington news and sports.
At the same time,
men and women often express comparable levels of interest in the top news stories
of the day. For example, the presidential campaign has attracted only modestly
greater interest among men than among women. 
REAGAN
SNIFF TEST
In a Rasmussen Reports survey just 19% of America's voters
believe the nation is better off today than it was four years ago compared to
74% who disagree.
Just 4% of Democrats believe the nation is better
off while 91% disagree. Sixteen percent of unaffiliated voters say the nation
is better off.
Among Republicans, 39% say the nation is better off while
51% disagree.
Sixteen percent say the country is heading in the right
direction while 78% disagree and say the U.S. is on the wrong track.
Women
are more pessimistic than men. Younger voters are less pessimistic than those
who used to be young. 
PRIMER
ON POLLS
Everyone complains about them when they're off, but they're usually
right on target. Polling as we know it began in 1936, when a young statistician
named George Gallup conducted the first poll using statistical modeling. Sampling
public opinion, Gallup said, is like sampling soup: One spoonful can reflect the
taste of the whole pot, if the soup is well stirred. It's all about finding
a sample that reflects the larger population.
For national polls, most
pollsters use a sample of 1,500 as a rule of thumb. A sample that size will accurately
reflect the whole within 3 percentage points, a variance that statisticians call
the "margin of error." 
PUSHY
POLLS
Both the general public and targeted candidates are increasingly
annoyed by push polls or political telemarketing, which often include negative-even
inflammatory -information about a candidate. The media describe these telephone
calls as push polls because they seek to "push" a certain candidate
or position.
These are not legitimate polls being conducted for research
purposes. Rather, they are persuasion calls-quick sales efforts, not the collection
of unbiased responses of legitimate polls or surveys. 
UNLUCKY
E-MAIL
Mitt Romney says he and New England Patriot quarterback Tom Brady
exchanged e-mails a day before the Super Bowl, but they didn't talk politics.
They used Blackberrys for the exchange. Both of them didn't enjoy good Februarys.
THE
PLAY'S THE THING
Not enough theatrics for you in the 2008 campaign, then
next time you're on Broadway, see November, a new play by Pulitzer Prize-winner
David Mamet.
Set just days before a presidential election, it proves,
once and for all, there's no lower place than the highest office in the land,
as the incumbent Commander-In-Chief must try to get a grip on such issues as lesbian
marriage, Indian casinos, preposterous pardons and questionable campaign contributions,
without losing his grip on the Oval Office.
It stars Tony Award winner
Nathan Lane as President Charles Smith. 
GIVE
ME FOOTBALL
Each of the major sports has suffered image problems, but their
popularity all remains relatively unchanged since last year. In a Harris Interactive
survey, 3 in 10 Americans who follow one or more sports say that professional
football is their favorite sport, almost unchanged from last year when 29%
said it was their favorite.
Coming in at second is baseball, as 15% say
that is their favorite sport, again almost unchanged from last year when it was
14%. Not far behind baseball is college football (12%) and auto racing (10%).
All other sports are in single digits. 
SMART
TV QUIZ
MENSA International Chairman Jim Werdell recently disclosed his
list of the 10 Smartest TV Shows of All Time, a task he described as difficult.
Match the shows below with the order Werdell revealed these programs. Answers
presented below. See you next month.
| 1.
All in the Family | a. No. 1 |
| 2.
Cosmos | b. No. 2 |
| 3. Jeopardy | c.
No. 5 |
| 4. M*A*S*H | d. No. 7 |
| 5.
West Wing | e. No. 10 |